Apr 5, 2017
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Morning Stock Market Update – Fed update, oil inventory, Apple and Tesla stock updates.

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hello good morning everyone welcome to our morning market update for I just going to move the camera up a little bit you can seem a little better for Wednesday March April the fifth how do you know a month it is Wednesday April the fifth of 2017 this is George fat slob owner found retriever Academy my arms are really sore to that I just went to the gym this morning I don't know I'm gonna go to click the mouse which is really good for today because that limits me in the amount of trades I'm going to do and muscle soreness is a good way to limit the amount of trades that you execute because I don't want the problems for traders they tend to over trade well I'm gonna have that problem today all right we got an exciting day there's a lot of exciting stuff taking place a lot of action you're going to see a lot of different movements but I'm gonna warn you today things got the potential to be a blowout upside this in a rally big time or you can see some more double sided trading and that depends on a number of things are going to talk about that all right in today's markets Asia's up point three percent Hong Kong's up point-six percent China up one and a half percent so China comes out out of the gate just swinging India up point to Europe a midday point one percent Paris point one percent Frankfurt down point three so asian session started strong European session fizzled out a little bit and futures in the S&P 500 currently up the rallying the one over yesterday's high so we're getting new highs to hear that are coming in nasdaq is down a little bit but it's recuperated crude oil is up almost one percent up to 51 half all right i'll tell you what the target for crude oil is in a couple of minutes and what you should expect today big day for crude oil today by the way gold down point three trading a 1250 470 i'm looking for a short on gold of equities continue on the upside all right due to weak seasonality a number of other reasons i've explained their subscriber room here today's economic calendar we got mortgage applications at seven already came out 815 we had a huge report we'll start with that adp jobs for those who don't know what ATP is once a month there's a report called non-farm payrolls it's a massive report it shows monthly gains or losses of jobs across different sectors in the private sector so that report is used for a lot of reasons mainly to indicate the health of the economy and Reserve closely monitors that we know anything that's closely monitored by the Federal Reserve is closely monitored by traders which means there's a lot of action around those days that's this friday well the wednesday before that friday or two days before there's another report that comes out of ATP ATP is one of the companies that's responsible for doing the majority of payrolls for private companies all right to their payroll company but use those stats to gauge whether or not there's job additions or subtractions so this is a precursor or a foreshadow to what can happen on Friday and Friday is a big day for the market at eight-thirty the more than any a big release so at adp non-farm employment change 263 263,000 jobs smashing the 184 expectations absolutely annihilated it that's why you're seeing strengthened to the open here into the late globex early us session that's what it is all right it's undeniable its strength indeed jobs market all right it's the third consecutive beat of the forecast from analysts that's phenomenal the markets showing some resilience and especially in the labor market front why is that important Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve has said we're continuing their upward policy of hiking rates as long as jobs are strong and inflation strong while we got one of the two things confirmed today all right um last there is however one bearish note that many traders missed because they don't look for the revisions I personally pay more close attention to the revision than the headline number although the headline drives all the algorithm and initial emotional trading the see a lot of movement up and down on the initial headline that's all goes alright last month number were revised down the 245,000 from almost 300 k that's nearly a 50,000 revision so I don't know what adp did but they dropped the ball they overestimated a number of jobs at it so all that strength those built with the market um was on 50,000 jobs less than it should have been does that make sense a 50,000 more it overshot it by 50k they revised that lower so I took very special note of that but despite that ATP numbers were strong good jobs number this morning SP and equity markets are ramping higher and I think today we got a blowout trade to the upside waiting to happen we got a lot of shorts stuck at the bottom of the last two days all right when we went to challenge those low got a lot of short seller stuck at the bottom a lot of Long's that were long up top or now shaken out of their long trade understanding what it goes down to things happen one is the traders that are already longer getting stopped out okay out of their position to squeeze though and new shorts are coming in hoping to make money on the downside when we bought them out what happens the sellers I got stopped out up or the buyers that got stopped though and up top and out buying it again on the dip because that's what they're trained to do all right and then that causes the first wave of sellers to get squeezed out the short sellers would squeeze out and then what happens and more buyers come in more shorts get squeezed out and the thing ramps up so be careful today it's got an opportunity to really come in there and bloody up a lot of shorts all right be careful so I'm saying another big report today is the department of energy release around oil inventory so API last night it's a private release show crude how to draw a 1.8 million barrels all that means is there's less supply there's actually a draw so think about an inventory of storage of sorts minus 1.8 year ago 1.8 million barrels left that storage so there's lower supply or higher demand maybe both um alright and that really caused crude oil just skyrocket up where it's about 50 165 it's gonna train to 52 today um we have a target on oil at $52 watch the 5195 251 98 even 99 and I'm not kidding oil is the Widowmaker if you're a long oil and say I'll sell it at 52 bucks guess what you might never get it you might get 5199 and a thing just plummets 40 cents in a matter of minutes while you're checking your work email I'm telling you be very careful on oil it's burn a lot of people myself included so set targets a little bit below where you want to take profit and get in a little bit earlier it's a little bit maybe later for a confirmation trade 61.8 Fibonacci level is 52 even watch for that as a target today we might get it ten-thirty in the morning thing we're going to have oil numbers coming out so we have to API is the Tuesday at four thirty p.m. after the market closes and then Wednesday's the Department of Energy report that's a 1030 the morning now remember this how do you trade the Department of Energy report so many new traders get this fat confused look at the part of energy if it's a draw than they say oil has to go up if it's a Bill Doyle has to go down but they don't even understand that there's another report called API because a private report the most people miss entirely floats out of their brain and so they don't even know it I think the oil traders have been doing this for three four years have no clue what API is all right which is absurd to me don't be that person by the way so what you want to look at now is we have a draw that's built in to the price of oil all right we have a draw so if we get a small draw on department of energy that's no longer a surprise that's now actually an expectation so small draw less than 120 million might actually lead the price is going we're down all right because there's less supply however there's less than there was yesterday therefore that's actually the same as a bill does that make sense I don't know if I'm losing you guys here all I'm telling you is don't trade the number outright trade the number in comparison to what's already priced in because of yesterday if you don't know what's pricing yesterday well then that's more reason for you subscribe to our trading room because we're going to cover the oil number at 10 20 we're gonna do a preview what they expect what number is to listen to and we're even going to include the live squawk and with a live traded today all right so you need to be in a group of people who are doing this thing professionally if you're doing it alone in a box or in the corner biting your fingernails at home chances of success are very little trading that way all right that's the next thing you got to watch out for 1030am today we're gonna get a draw will if you build what will that mean for the market there's definitely a good trade coming out of this number today I'm really excited Tuesdays are the days that i can make a ton of money and make my whole week with it in a Tuesday early on all right especially on oil inventory data so didn't do so well last week I'm the one but this week is gonna be different Tonya ah today we also have meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve at two p.m. Eastern I'm going to tell you doesn't really mean much those minutes have already priced in the hikes with price in this dovish interest rate environment has been priced into the market the market doesn't really care so much as interesting rates anymore and this is also another area where traders are starting to get confused finally everyone's caught on to this hawkish interest rates means down market alright because the markets scared well first of all that's wrong because now the market started take in a positive light but even more than that really care about it just rates anymore we know they're going to get raised all right we know the jobs market is strong we know inflation is going up we know that I'm on the Federal Reserve thinks we should have higher interest rates that's no longer a factor all right unless there's a surprise of some sorts the market shrugging that awful saying man we kind of expect that all right what the markets now looking at and you need to know this you heard this year first six seven months down the road when this starts to become mainstream media you're going to say I heard a first-rate broke Adam guaranteed no one's talking about this talking about the balance sheet right now that's what's important the Federal Reserve one of the members yesterday actually made a reference of saying you know we don't have to raise interest rates we could start to look at other ways of winding down or balance sheet and that will cause interest rates to go up through a mechanism it takes a long time to explain what you need to know is they have another tool another policy tool that no one's considered and that's what the markets focusing on more an ass balance sheet all right you spent since 2009 thought they spent so much money for trillion dollars stimulating the economy that means you now own those assets how the heck are you get rid of them that's what everyone's wondering how are you gonna get rid of them because a lot of paper they have on the book and they have to sell it to get rid of it and to take that cash flow out I think what this when you're buying an asset you're taking possession of the asset and you're giving the market money think about that if you're buying on the open market you're removing liquidity and paying out cash um that's one of the porn aspects all right um in terms of what else to look forward that's the balance sheets as today also yesterday we had some really big news richmond fed president lacquer has resigned he was involved in a scandal in 2012 where he'll eat some sensitive data to the private sector and he admitted it was him he's not a voter on the FOMC so you really don't have to worry about it it's almost like a like a non-event however you do need to know he was the leaker of that data he's resigned his position all right I Janet Yellen was asked about this months ago she said she had no idea who it was it's not factual data and now here it is this factual data the guys resigning over it all right so that happened yesterday it's not a voter use a moderate hawk at we could pretty much just right off lacquer say goodbye goodbye laughter it's been a thanks for your commentary Apple two laps events and I got to go very quickly it's got to set up the trading room and someone's waiting for me downstairs they're locked out it's my feet hot set juicy you guys over my fiance don't tell her that Apple alright um we just had a news event this morning just fresh off the press that they might delay their new iphone launched october november watch out for that because if on the open Apple tanks it's nice and high it's at all-time highs right now if it tanks it's gonna bring down what it's going to bring down the equity indices it's gonna cause some selling it'll force themselves off to the downside put apple on your radar and put that on your correlation charts today other company have to watch for is Elon Musk's Tesla it's one hundred percent official now Elon Musk has surpassed Ford and company value and has surpassed General Motors it's insane just went in there and took out all the competition it's now number it's pretty much the biggest automaker in the United States all right Tesla is and that's phenomenal news it's now valued at fifty 2.7 billion shares are up another one percent yesterday and they cross over the three hundred dollar mark so good work the tests anyone the trading it it's past General Motors um what was the note I wrote here just watch out for that stock all right I continue to think it looks increasingly better and better day by day for a short you got it I'm not looking to buy this thing at record high valuations i'm looking to clobber this thing q1 inventory or q1 sales of their vehicles were reported higher than expected and we got some last life to break above the high rope in some retail money to get long and I think we go in there and let them have it three four percent drop that's wrong I'm banking on so I gotta test the short floating at some point subscribers will tell you about it in a minute or throughout the next couple days for sure so I'm not ready to do the trade yet but I'm it's on my radar Apple watch out for the open fed at 2pm is going to be a non-event alright jobs report was really strong markets are at their eyes and see if we carry forward that will make them that's your morning market update guys we're starting off on a bullish note look for opportunities to buy the dips in the morning and in the afternoon the trade has been sell the rallies I don't we do after that I'd say we just keep cruising higher and higher and higher and we shake out some of these shorts that are cube later at the loads have a great day check out our trading room sign up you get the trade in the community of traders as well we do day trading on futures we don't just trade one product with you all we do equity indices we do commodities we trade anything wherever there's opportunity alright then we have a separate service called options pro that's a newsletter on a daily basis every day around 1pm eastern i'll send you a list of stocks are about to break out and make really sharp moves alright whenever there's volatility movement there's profit potential for you and that list is based on where the smart money is going institutional flow big capital going into the stocks I'll tell you which ones to watch for two to three on a daily basis sunday you got a live webinar with analysis on what's going to happen the upcoming week and it options newsletter that's the options Pro package day trader pro you get this webinar including morning sessions we trained together we trade the open and access our live trading room so you could trade with our community check it out you got a 30 day money-back guarantee if you don't like it I don't want your money I want you to take it and I don't even want a reason you just say I don't like my 30 days that you can go it's probably more effort from you investigating that just give you the money back if you don't like what you're hearing it's not the right product for you great but it's backed by a 30 day money-back guarantee take care of check us out of trade for academy com I have yourselves a good day trade careful out there would have a lot of movement and don't fall in love with with your position don't fall in love with being right fall in love with making money that's what this business is about don't try to guess the direction spot the direction analyze the information in front of you and make a decision based on that you're not doing this to be right you're doing this to make money all right I was wrong three out of what was my winning rate last week I had two winners and 11 losses and I made that back up with one trade so I went 3 for 11 on my trades that I made money that day alright do you think both those folks on being correct in my direction I just going to go up it has to go up I'm gonna buy more think I want to make money I would've got slaughtered like a pig and that's why you don't go for direction you go four dollars take care have a great day let me just open up the subscriber room now hey k in you two minutes youtube I bid you farewell that hurt the bicep bid you farewell I'll see you guys tomorrow on the open at 9am or pre-open take it back


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In this morning’s stock market forecast we look at the ADP jobs number release, as well as what it could mean for Non Farm Payrolls this Friday. We also talk about the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. We also share a big update that could effect Apple stock, and Tesla accomplishes yet another milestone!

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    Comments to Morning Stock Market Update – Fed update, oil inventory, Apple and Tesla stock updates.

    • glad i placed my stops today… this afternoon was brutal trading options on $aapl.

      KING LEE April 5, 2017 7:47 pm Reply
      • It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. There were some big signs the market would reverse after the Fed minutes, and we bought the dip initially but then sold it hard for the rest of the afternoon. There was lots of discussion on our trading floor around that event. As long as you cut your losses, it's a good trade. 🙂

        TRADEPRO Academy April 6, 2017 12:40 pm Reply

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